Arizona Voter Intelligence · 2026 Cycle

Arizona district intelligence, built on the public voter file.

District intelligence built on the Arizona Secretary of State voter registration database — from aggregate district reports that tell a campaign what kind of electorate it is running in, to scored voter-level universes ready to hand a canvass, mail, phone, or text vendor. Five SKUs sharing one propensity engine, one VRDB source, one monthly refresh.

VRDB Snapshot
4.96M
registrants statewide, 2026-04-01 snapshot, both Active and Inactive
Drop-off ’22G → skip ’24G
167,661
statewide cohort — voted in 2022 General, did not vote in 2024 General
Surge ’24G first-timer
918,067
statewide cohort — first-ever recorded ballot in ’24G
Net change ’22G→’24G
+750,406
surge minus drop-off — the 2026 turnout story in one number

Reads the public voter file the way a campaign actually thinks about its district.

Most Arizona campaigns either stare at a 4-million-row voter file in a vendor seat they can’t fully read, or pay a consultant for a one-off slide that summarizes what last cycle’s electorate looked like. Both leave the basic district-shape questions unanswered: who lives here, what changed in ’24, and how big is the win-back universe in ’26.

AZ Voter Intelligence works two ways. Two SKUs answer the district-shape questions as aggregate reports: a composition snapshot that profiles the district as it stands, and a cohort report that sizes the drop-off and surge universes the ’26 turnout fight will be decided by. Two more SKUs go one level deeper — a transparent propensity score for every registrant, and a filtered, vendor-ready universe built from it, for campaigns that need the scored list itself, not just the district read. All four rebuild monthly from the same Secretary of State export the campaign can request itself to verify the math.

One voter file. Two reports that answer two questions.

The composition snapshot answers who is here. The cohort report answers what changed in ’24 and what it means for ’26. Each can be ordered alone; most campaigns order both.

SKU 36A

District Composition Snapshot

The structural read on a district: party mix, age distribution, AEVL-by-party share, turnout-propensity bands, 5-cycle turnout history, and the top ZIPs by registration. Print-styled HTML + PDF, drop-into-a-proposal ready. All numbers are district-level aggregates.

Output · HTML + PDF, 1 district per report
SKU 36D

Drop-off / Surge Cohort Report

Sizes the two highest-leverage 2026 cohorts for a district: drop-off (voted ’22G, skipped ’24G) and surge (voted ’24G with no prior history). Party, age, propensity-band, and top-ZIP breakdowns inside each cohort — all aggregate counts and percentages, no voter-row output.

Output · HTML + PDF, 1 district per report

When the district read is not enough, get the scored list itself.

36A and 36D are aggregate district reports. 36B and 36C are the voter-level layer underneath them — a transparent propensity score for every registrant, and a filtered, vendor-ready universe built from it. Both are voter-level exports, not aggregate counts.

SKU 36B

Turnout Propensity Score

Every voter in the district scored 0–100 against the next general election with a documented, rules-based scorer — 5-cycle vote history, AEVL status, registration status and recency. Buckets: Reliable, Likely, Lean, Sporadic, Unlikely. The same scoring engine behind every other 36-series product.

Output · scored voter-level CSV, 1 district per report
SKU 36C

Persuasion Universe Builder

A filtered, canvass / mail / phone / text-ready CSV built from named recipes (persuadable independents, lean-D turnout, AEVL-active Democrats, 2024 drop-off, 2024 surge, young active Democrats, super-voters) or a custom filter spec. Rows include name, address, phone, party, age, propensity score and bucket, 5-cycle vote indicators, and full district stack — ready to hand to your vendor.

Output · voter-level CSV, with vendor-format adapters for NGP VAN / SmartVAN and Twilio-family SMS

Most campaigns order the bundle.

2026 District Bundle

36A + 36D — Composition + Cohort Report

The whole picture for one district: who is here today, what changed in ’24, where the 2026 win-back math sits. Bundle pricing is 20% off list.

Included in the bundle
  • SKU 36A — District composition snapshot (HTML + PDF)
  • SKU 36D — Drop-off / surge cohort report (HTML + PDF)
  • Snapshot-date stamped on every artifact — you know exactly which VRDB pull you bought
  • Print-styled US Letter PDFs for both reports
  • Optional re-pull at the next monthly refresh (otherwise re-order at list)
What it helps you decide
  • Whether the district’s mix favors a registration play, a persuasion play, or a turnout play
  • How big the ’22-to-’24 drop-off is in this district relative to statewide
  • How big the ’24 surge cohort is and how stable it looks
  • Where the propensity weight sits — how much of the district is reliable vs. lean vs. sporadic
  • Which ZIPs to prioritize for paid mail, paid digital, and field cycle planning
  • How the district’s shape sits relative to the statewide 2026 turnout picture
Order the bundle

SKU 36E — AEVL Ballot Chase (bring your own list).

Early-Vote Window Only

Daily Chase Dashboard + Augmented Scored List

A different shape from 36A/36D: you supply your county-issued daily AEVL return file, and we join it against the district’s AEVL-active universe and propensity scores. We don’t hand you named voters — we hand your own list back to you, scored.

What you get
  • Aggregate dashboard (HTML/PDF) — outstanding count, return rate, priority score weighted by propensity
  • Outstanding breakdown by party, propensity band, age, and top ZIPs
  • Augmented scored-list CSV — your own rows, with district propensity score, propensity bucket, party, and AEVL-active flag appended
  • Refreshed daily against your latest county file, for the duration of the early-vote window
How it’s different from 36A / 36D
  • Bring-your-own-list — you upload your county-supplied daily ballot-return file, we don’t supply the list
  • Seasonal, not monthly — active only during the roughly 27-day Arizona early-vote window
  • No persistence of your uploaded file after the engagement
  • Priced per engagement for the window, not per snapshot
Ask about the early-vote window

Arizona campaigns and committees that need the district picture, not somebody else’s contact list.

01

Legislative & Congressional Campaigns

Ground the district read in this district’s actual cohort math instead of statewide averages that hide the local story. Strongest fit for AZ state senate, state house, and congressional candidates.

02

Party Committees & Caucuses

Compare drop-off and surge cohort sizes across a slate of races and allocate field, mail, and digital resources to the districts where the win-back math is biggest. Bundle pricing scales naturally to multi-district orders.

03

Down-ballot & Local Races

School board, city council, and mayoral campaigns can order either report scoped to their geography. The district keys cover county, precinct, municipal, and school-district boundaries — not just legislative geography.

04

Consultants & Partner Agencies

The reports are leave-behind ready and white-label friendly. They sit on top of the same Secretary of State source the campaign can request itself, which keeps the math defensible in a budget meeting. Partner pricing on request.

Per district. Per report. Or bundled.

SKU 36A — Composition Snapshot

Pricing on request

HTML + PDF report covering party mix, age, AEVL, propensity bands, 5-cycle turnout, top ZIPs. The canonical entry point for a single district.

SKU 36D — Drop-off / Surge Report

Pricing on request

Cohort report sizing the win-back and defend-or-lose universes with party, age, propensity, and top-ZIP breakdowns — all aggregate. Lower end for state legislative; upper end for congressional and statewide.

2026 District Bundle (36A + 36D)

Pricing on request

Composition snapshot + drop-off / surge report for one district. Most campaigns order the bundle.

Statewide & Multi-District

Pricing on request

Statewide drop-off / surge rollups, party-committee multi-district scopes, and full-slate engagements. The statewide 1-pager comes free with any qualifying engagement.

SKU 36B — Turnout Propensity Score

Pricing on request

Every registrant in the district scored 0–100 with documented rules-engine weights. Voter-level CSV.

SKU 36C — Persuasion Universe Builder

Pricing on request

Named-recipe or custom-filtered canvass/mail/phone/text-ready CSV with name, address, phone, and full district stack. Vendor-format adapters available.

SKU 36E — AEVL Ballot Chase (BYOL)

Pricing on request

Seasonal, bring-your-own-list daily chase pack for the early-vote window. Priced per engagement for the window, not per snapshot.

All engagements are one-time, per-snapshot. The VRDB refreshes monthly; re-orders at the next snapshot are priced on request for a previously-purchased district report. Statewide composition and statewide cohort views available on request — useful as committee leave-behinds.

Most voter-file products hide the math. This one shows it.

The big national vendor files compress a lot of judgment calls into a single propensity score and a single household model. That is fine when you trust the vendor and you have a national footprint to amortize the cost. It is the wrong shape for a single Arizona campaign that needs to defend the targeting choice in a budget meeting.

AZ Voter Intelligence inverts that. The propensity bands are a rules-based scorer with weights documented in the build spec; you can see exactly why a given share of the district landed in each bucket. The cohort definitions are SQL you can read. The reports ship Active + Inactive by default. The snapshot date is on every artifact. The whole pipeline rebuilds monthly from a single Secretary of State export the campaign can request itself.

Same VRDB the parties use. Different posture toward the buyer.

What this is not.

This is not a full voter-file replacement. 36A and 36D are aggregate district reports — the kind of district read a campaign uses to plan a cycle, with no voter-row data in the deliverable. 36B and 36C are voter-level products built for campaigns that specifically need a scored, exportable universe rather than a raw statewide file in a vendor seat they can’t fully read. If you already have your own contact list and just want it augmented with district context instead of ordering a new universe, our 36E AEVL Ballot Chase add-on scores your own uploaded list. AZ only. Not a substitute for a full voter-file vendor like NGP VAN, Catalist, or TargetSmart.

AZ Voter Intelligence / 2026

Order one district, the bundle, or a full slate.

Tell us the district and which report you want. We’ll return artifacts dated to the current VRDB snapshot, sized to your race, in print-styled HTML + PDF.

Or reach us at robb.vaules@bluelist.ai — we respond within 48 hours.