Catalogs · Voter Data & Targeting

Voter Data &
Targeting

“Who do I contact, and how?”

Every campaign eventually asks the same three questions: who is in this district, which of them will actually vote, and which names go on the list this week. Most campaigns answer them with a spreadsheet exported once in June and slowly diverging from reality until November. BlueList’s Voter Data products answer them from the state’s own voter registration database, refreshed on a schedule, with the scoring rules published rather than hidden — and deliver the result as a file the campaign’s canvassing app, mail house, or texting vendor can ingest without rework.

Eight data products

Sold individually or together; scope and lead time are set per engagement.

US36List Layer

Voter Intelligence Pack

The list layer, built directly on the state voter file — five products sharing one engine, so the numbers in each agree with the numbers in the others. Composition Snapshot is a short report for any district — congressional, legislative, county supervisor, precinct, municipal, or school — covering registered total, party mix, age bands, early-voting enrollment, and five cycles of turnout by party. Turnout Propensity Score ranks every voter 0–100 against the next general election and sorts them into five named buckets. Persuasion Universe Builder turns that into a filtered file ready for canvass, mail, phone, or text, driven by named recipes — persuadable independents, lean-Democratic low-turnout, early-voting actives, 2024 drop-off, 2024 surge, young actives, super-voters — or a custom spec.

Drop-off & Surge Cohort Report classifies the whole district into mutually exclusive groups: voters who turned out in 2022 but skipped 2024 (the win-back universe), voters who appeared in 2024 with no prior history (defend them or lose them), voters who did both, and everyone else — each broken out by party, age, propensity and geography, with a net-change headline for the district. Ballot Chase runs during the early-vote window on the client’s own county-supplied return file: BlueList joins it to the district’s early-voting universe and returns an outstanding-ballot dashboard plus the client’s own rows with propensity, party, and district columns appended.

Distinct from a managed data engagement — this is the productized layer a campaign or committee runs itself.

Deliverables  Composition snapshot · scored voter file · recipe-driven universe CSVs · cohort report · ballot-chase dashboard & augmented list
Read the full Voter Intelligence page →
US17Modeling

Turnout Predictor

How many votes does it actually take to win this seat, and where do they come from? A precinct-by-precinct turnout model built from the voter file’s own vote history and published election returns. It projects expected turnout for the district, states the win number that follows from it, and shows which precincts are running above or below their own historical averages — which is what turns a turnout estimate into a field plan, because it says where an additional volunteer hour is worth more than it is somewhere else.

Feeds directly into canvassing priorities and the final thirty days — the field tiers it assigns are the same tiers the walk lists and the ballot chase are cut against, so the whole program is working off one number instead of three.

Deliverables  Turnout projection · win number · precinct performance table · field tier assignments
US16Tracking

Voter Registration Tracker

The electorate you researched in the spring is not the electorate that votes in November. This tracks who is joining it. By comparing successive voter file extracts, it reports the volume of new registrations in a district and breaks them down by party, age, and where in the district they are concentrated — so a campaign can see whether a registration drive is working, and whether the district is drifting toward it or away from it.

Most valuable in the weeks before the registration deadline, when the number is still movable. One practical note on how it works: the report is a comparison between two points in time, so the first extract sets the baseline and the first report comes with the one after it. Starting earlier gives you a longer trend.

Deliverables  Registration change report · new-registrant breakdown by party, age & geography · trend series
US04Field

Canvass Optimizer

Cutting turf by hand produces walk lists that are convenient to knock and indifferent to whether the doors are worth knocking. This scores every door on persuadability and mobilization potential, cuts turf that a volunteer can actually finish in a shift, and exports to the canvassing app the field team already uses or to a printable list for the ones who don’t use an app. As the campaign logs contact results, the next week’s lists reflect them.

The scoring is the part that is hard to replicate by hand: the same propensity engine the rest of this catalog runs on, applied at the household level, so a turf that looks efficient on a map is also efficient in votes. Refreshed on whatever cadence the field program can absorb.

Deliverables  Scored walk lists · cut turf · canvassing-app export or printable PDF
US12Mail

Mail Universe Strategy

Direct mail is priced per piece, so the entire economics of a mail program is the list. This builds mailing universes segmented by persuasion, base mobilization, and new registrants, and hands them over in a format any mail vendor can take — the campaign chooses its own printer and is not routed through one.

Each segment ships with its count and an estimated cost at the client’s own per-piece rate, so the decision about how deep to mail is made before the printer is called rather than after the invoice arrives. Postal address standardization is handled by the mail house as part of their normal intake.

Deliverables  Segmented mail universes · vendor-ready export · segment sizing & cost estimate
US21GOTV

GOTV Countdown

In the last thirty days the only question that matters is which of your supporters have not voted yet. This tracks early-vote returns as they come in, cross-references them against the campaign’s supporter universe, and produces a daily list of the people who still need to be contacted — ordered by how likely each one is to vote if someone reaches them, which is not the same as how likely they are to vote. Phone banks and door programs work down that list instead of the whole universe.

Two things get arranged at the start of the engagement: the campaign’s own supporter file, and access to the county’s daily ballot-return feed, which is obtained per county and per cycle. Both are set up before the early-vote window opens, because there is no time to arrange them once it has.

Deliverables  Daily outstanding-supporter list · return-rate dashboard · contact priority ranking
US09End of Cycle

Post-Election Data Vault

Most campaigns lose everything they learned about their district within a month of election night. The canvass results, the volunteer roster, the donor list, the contact history — it sits in a departing staffer’s laptop and a cancelled software subscription. This captures that data at the end of the cycle, cleans and deduplicates it, and stores it in a structured form the candidate can use in a next run, or hand to a successor in the same district.

Scoped once the campaign’s actual systems are known, because no two campaigns end the cycle with their data in the same shape — some of it is in a canvassing app, some in a spreadsheet, some in an inbox. The work is as much archaeology as engineering, and it is far cheaper to do in November than to reconstruct two years later.

Deliverables  Cleaned & deduplicated data archive · structured export · data inventory
US54Data Services

List Verification & Contact Hygiene

You have a list. You do not know how much of it is real. The client supplies raw phones and emails; BlueList verifies and classifies each one and returns the same list annotated and channel-ready. Phones come back with line type — mobile, landline, or internet number — carrier, validity, and a scrub against do-not-call and known-litigator registries. Emails come back with a deliverability grade and a bounce and spam-trap risk score, so a campaign learns what sending to the list will do to its sender reputation before it sends. Postal certification and change-of-address are available as an option.

Not a list-sales product and not a voter-file pull: the client owns the input and the output, and no voter-file names appear in the deliverable. Consent and data-ownership terms are settled in the engagement agreement before any list is processed — which is the part most vendors skip, and the part that matters if the list was ever going to be texted.

Deliverables  Cleaned annotated file · hygiene report · channel-readiness grades

How these are built

The same method underlies the whole family. Not every step applies to every product — where one does not, the description says so.

01
One voter file, refreshed on a schedule. The spine is the state’s own official voter registration database, licensed from the state and refreshed monthly — in Arizona, 4.96 million voter records with their vote history. It is not a purchased consumer list and not a modeled national file stitched together from commercial data. When the state publishes a new extract, every product downstream sees it.
02
Scoring is a rules engine you can read, not a black box. Turnout propensity is computed from five cycles of vote history, early-voting enrollment, registration status, and how recently the voter registered. The rules ship with the output, so a campaign can see why a voter scored 71 instead of being asked to trust a number. The engine has been replayed against a completed general election alongside a fitted statistical model — as a check on the rules, not a replacement for them.
03
Buckets are named and cohorts are mutually exclusive. Propensity lands in one of five named buckets — Reliable, Likely, Lean, Sporadic, Unlikely — rather than a bare decimal. Behavioural cohorts follow the same discipline: every voter is drop-off, surge, loyal, or other, and never two at once, so a district’s numbers add up to the district.
04
Every row carries its full district stack. Congressional, legislative, county supervisor, precinct, municipal, and school district all travel with the voter, so a list cut for one office can be re-cut for another without going back to the file — and so a row can always be checked against the district it claims to be in.
05
Lists ship in the format the vendor actually ingests. Canvassing exports built for the app the field team already uses, mail files in USPS-compatible format, texting files in the layout the platform expects. The output is meant to be uploaded, not reformatted by a volunteer at 11pm.
06
Bring-your-own-list work stays yours. Where a product runs on the client’s own file — a supporter list, a ballot-return file from the county — the client owns the input and the output, the uploaded file is not retained, and no voter-file names appear in the deliverable. The client’s rows come back with columns added, not replaced.

Coverage & scope

What travels between states, and what has to be checked first.

The engine is portable. Voter file access is the constraint.

These products were built on the Arizona voter file and the engine is not Arizona-specific — but voter file access is governed state by state, and the binding constraint is usually eligibility rather than price. Some states publish the file free to anyone; some charge; and a substantial number will not sell it to an out-of-state consultancy in its own name at all, restricting it to candidates, committees, and parties within the state.

The clean answer is for the client to hold the licence. A campaign, party committee, or political committee qualifies in its own state where an outside vendor does not; the file stays in the client’s name, under the client’s use restrictions, and BlueList works against it. That structure should be settled before a multi-state engagement begins, not during it. Where no file is worth acquiring, precinct-level election returns are published in most states and support the district-level analysis, though not the individual-level lists.

What BlueList does not do

BlueList does not sell voter data. Every list product runs against a file the client is licensed to use, and deliverables are returned to that client under those same restrictions. BlueList does not send the mail, dial the phones, text the lists, or knock the doors — it produces the list and hands it to whoever does. And it does not merge voter records into commercial consumer databases.

The list layer, from the state's own file.

Tell us about the district and the program. We will map which products fit it, what your state's voter file permits, and what the work costs there.

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